How do we know what a port is worth?

Beneath the cranes, containers, and capital-intensive infrastructure lies a story told in numbers—enterprise value, EBITDA, beta, and discount rates. In this latest article, we dive into the analytical foundations of port valuation and demystify how financial professionals, investors, and public authorities assess risk and opportunity.

Using two fictional but realistic marine terminal case studies, the piece walks through:

• How comparables and multiples (like EV/EBITDA) are applied
• How beta is unlevered and re-levered to reflect project risk
• How discount rates are calculated using a Capital Asset Pricing Model formula
• Why capital structure matters—and how context changes everything

If you’re working in port planning, investment appraisal, concession design, or infrastructure finance—this paper aims to equip you with both clarity and practical insight. Grateful acknowledgment is extended to Jonathan Schwartz, CFA (Vice President, Monument Economics Group) for his insightful comments and contributions to the development of this paper and to Ryan Beach (www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbeach3) for his thoughtful review and comments, which helped strengthen the clarity and analytical depth of this paper.

Click here to read the full paper.

Recent remarks by the U.S. President have brought renewed attention to the Panama Canal—raising concerns about rising tolls, treaty obligations, and foreign influence. Some have even suggested the U.S. should reassume control of the Canal.

In his latest piece for The Beauty of Logistics series, Monument Economics’ Dr. Paul Kent takes a closer look at the facts behind these claims:

• What does the Neutrality Treaty really say?
• Is Panama’s toll structure fair—or excessive?
• How does the Canal’s financial performance compare to other global infrastructure operators?
• And what about the oft-repeated claim of Chinese control?

Using public data, concession norms, and financial benchmarks, Dr. Kent’s article offers a grounded assessment of the Canal’s governance, pricing strategy, and strategic role.

Click here to read the full paper.

 

Comentarios recientes del Presidente de los Estados Unidos han vuelto a poner al Canal de Panamá en el centro del debate, generando preocupaciones sobre el aumento de los peajes, las obligaciones del tratado y la influencia extranjera. Algunos incluso han sugerido que EE. UU. debería retomar el control del Canal.

En su artículo más reciente de la serie The Beauty of Logistics, el Dr. Paul Kent, de Monument Economics, examina con mayor detalle los hechos detrás de estas afirmaciones:

• ¿Qué dice realmente el Tratado de Neutralidad?
• ¿Es justa la estructura tarifaria de Panamá, o resulta excesiva?
• ¿Cómo se compara el desempeño financiero del Canal con el de otros operadores de infraestructura global?
• ¿Y qué hay de la afirmación repetida sobre el control chino?

Utilizando datos públicos, normas internacionales de concesión y comparaciones financieras, el artículo del Dr. Kent ofrece una evaluación rigurosa sobre la gobernanza del Canal, la estrategia de precios y su papel estratégico en el comercio mundial.

Haga clic aquí para leer el artículo completo.

Dr. Kent harnesses existing and emerging technologies to advance his Intelligent Logistics System (ILS) concept to tackle inefficiencies and challenges across global supply chains. By leveraging IoT, AI, Blockchain, Digital Twins, and PiChain, the ILS enhances efficiency, fosters transparency, and drives sustainability—ushering in a new era of logistics innovation. He demonstrates its application in a hypothetical scenario inspired by Brazil’s soybean logistics.

Part 1 can be accessed here. Part 2, coming soon, will delve into the challenges and opportunities for implementing the ILS at scale, exploring technical and financial barriers, such as data integration complexities, cost recovery mechanisms, and stakeholder alignment. Part 2 will also introduce the concept of a centralized technology management platform—the “system of systems”—to coordinate multiple ILS components.

Prior articles from Dr. Kent’s For the Beauty of Logistics Series can be found here:

• Honduras’ ICSID Withdrawal and What’s at Stake – Monument Economics Group
• Gaza’s Port to Prosperity: Building a Sustainable Future Amidst Conflict – Monument Economics Group
• From Nobel Laureates to the Cellular Supply Chain: Unveiling Logistics Concepts to Foster Wider Understanding of Scientific Research – Monument Economics Group

Dr. Paul Kent has released the third paper of his For the Beauty of Logistics series. In it, he examines Honduras’ recent decision to withdraw from the World Bank’s forum for international arbitration, known as ICSID. Dr. Kent examines the impact of the withdrawal on current and future investment projects and highlights the critical need for diversified arbitration options to maintain investor confidence, with potential ramifications for other countries considering a similar decision. The article is available in both English and Spanish.

Click here to read the full paper.

Dr. Kent’s For the Beauty of Logistics series is a collection of short papers that reveal deeper insights in how logistics principles intersect with economic, policy, and infrastructure systems. Previous papers in the series include:

Gaza’s Port to Prosperity: Building a Sustainable Future Amidst Conflict – Monument Economics Group

From Nobel Laureates to the Cellular Supply Chain: Unveiling Logistics Concepts to Foster Wider Understanding of Scientific Research – Monument Economics Group

 

El Dr. Kent ha publicado el tercer artículo de su serie For the Beauty of Logistics. En él, examina la reciente decisión de Honduras de retirarse del foro de arbitraje internacional del Banco Mundial, conocido como CIADI. El Dr. Kent analiza el impacto de esta retirada en los proyectos de inversión actuales y futuros y destaca la necesidad crítica de opciones diversificadas de arbitraje para mantener la confianza de los inversionistas, con posibles repercusiones para otros países que puedan considerar una decisión similar. El artículo está disponible tanto en inglés como en español.

Haga clic aquí para leer el artículo completo.

La serie For the Beauty of Logistics del Dr. Kent es una colección de artículos cortos que revelan una comprensión más profunda de cómo los principios logísticos se entrelazan con los sistemas económicos, políticos y de infraestructura. Artículos anteriores de la serie incluyen:

Gaza’s Port to Prosperity: Building a Sustainable Future Amidst Conflict – Monument Economics Group

From Nobel Laureates to the Cellular Supply Chain: Unveiling Logistics Concepts to Foster Wider Understanding of Scientific Research – Monument Economics Group

In Dr. Kent’s second paper in his For the Beauty of Logistics series, he explores a unique setting for port development to serve Gaza: one that seeks to balance Israel’s security needs with Palestinian sovereignty aspirations. The paper presents five port options according to their locations: inside Gaza, on the border, and outside Gaza. The favored option, the South Gaza/Kerem Shalom plan, entails an autonomous Palestinian port to be constructed in Egypt, adjacent to Gaza’s border. This port will be connected to the existing Kerem Shalom border crossing terminal via a dedicated 10-km port truck corridor. Then, Kerem Shalom will be expanded and turned into a logistics hub and special economic zone connected by rail to the West Bank. The chosen port solution not only addresses security concerns, but also holds promise for significant economic improvement, offering hope for Gaza and a stable peace for this war-torn region.

Click here to read the full paper.

The For the Beauty of Logistics series, authored by Dr. Paul Kent, consists of short papers that aim to showcase how the principles of logistics can enable groundbreaking advancements, optimize processes, and revolutionize our understanding of complex systems. The first paper of the series, “From Nobel Laureates to the Cellular Supply Chain: Unveiling Logistics Concepts to Foster Wider Understanding of Scientific Research”, can be accessed here.

Monument’s Dr. Paul Kent was the primary author of the Freight and Supply Chain chapter of the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2023. In the 2022 edition, Paul had highlighted a significant development: U.S. East Coast port Asian trade container volumes exceeded U.S. West Coast port Asian trade volumes for the first time. This shift is credited to improvements in the Suez Canal, increased capacity in U.S. East Coast ports for handling larger vessels, and enhanced connectivity with global shipping lines, rendering these ports more competitive than their West Coast counterparts. The 2023 Chapter, posted here, indicates a continuation of this trend, with U.S. East Coast Ports capturing greater market share of the U.S.-Asian trades.

Next year’s data can be intriguing considering the adverse effects of the Panama Canal’s drought conditions leading to reduced vessel transits, and the Israel-Hamas war prompting vessel diversions around the African Cape instead of utilizing the Suez Canal. As reported today in the Journal of Commerce, both Shanghai-New York and Shanghai-Los Angeles container trades are at their highest rates since December 2022. The diversions caused by the Panama Canal constraints and the Israel-Hamas war are likely to contribute to a rise in U.S. West Coast container volumes as shipping lines redirect shipments to U.S. West Coast ports.

One would normally anticipate an increase in freight costs from these diversions, potentially leading to price hikes in retail goods. However, such price increases may be tempered by a flood of new container ships entering the markets, posing a risk of overcapacity in container ships.

The full 2023 Annual Report, which includes data on non-maritime modes and transportation economics, can be found here: Transportation Statistics Annual Report | Bureau of Transportation Statistics (bts.gov)